The Site Planning Report: the planning, the risk and the number - before you commit.

The outline consent is real and verified at source: 20/03343/AOP for 42 dwellings, signed decision notice with 29 conditions, granted 10 May 2024, access approved not reserved. The risk is the maths. On a central GDV of £13.8m and an all-in outlay of £10.28m (build, fees, finance, s.106 and sales, before land), the residual land value is £1.105m at a 17.5% margin, and the absolute bid ceiling at a 15% profit-on-cost floor is £1.61m. The £2.75m March 2025 guide implied a 4.6% margin, which is why the room returned no bids. A Reserved Matters application is due by 10 May 2027 or the consent lapses. First moves: FOI the s.106 deed (free) and pull the title for £7.

All three catalogue references verified live on the Three Rivers register: a single-storey rear extension, a Certificate of Lawfulness for loft, garage and porch works, and a subdivision into two self-contained flats approved 22 December 2025. The planning route is clear. The risk is the exit, not the permission. As a two-flat development the £815k GDV against a £374k delivery cost leaves a developer ceiling of £317k - about £259k below the £576,000 hammer once SDLT with the surcharge is added. The deal makes sense as the extended four-bed home the buyer intends (£680-780k end value), where the numbers work; priced as a flat-flip, it overpays.

This is an intent-led appraisal: there is no planning consent on the public record, so the report prices the probability, not a certainty. A 4-5 house backland scheme would carry an indicative GDV of £2.6m and a consented residual land value of £225k at a 17.5% margin. But backland infill in Ealing turns on access width, daylight to neighbours (BRE 209) and overlooking, and the consent likelihood sits in a 55-60% medium band - so the probability-weighted bid is about £131k, not the headline residual. An Ealing pre-application endorsing the principle is the single cheapest thing that moves the band; spend it before bidding, not after.

The convert-to-flats pitch the lot was sold on is blocked on the public record. The ground-floor laundrette is Sui Generis under the Use Classes Order, so the high-volume Class MA prior-approval route does not engage - any flat scheme needs a full application, against a recorded 2003 refusal at this exact address (ref 030181) and a possible Waltham Forest Article 4 direction. The conversion residual is £395k and the ceiling £414k even if consent were certain, against a low 35-45% likelihood. The £650,000 ask is £236k above that ceiling and a loss as a conversion; the defensible value is £480-560k as a standing mixed-use investment. First moves cost under £1,000: confirm the Article 4 scope and read the 2003 refusal before anything else.

Three live residential consents for 22 flats, all verified at source, on a shell that has stood part-built and weathering since the contractor went into administration in 2021. On a £4.65m GDV and a £3.50m all-in outlay, the consented residual is £341k and the developer ceiling £513k, so the £450,000 hammer returns 16.9% profit on cost - if the standing structure can be relied on. If the foundations, ground beams and blockwork must be demolished and re-cast, build cost swings by £100k-£300k and the ceiling collapses. A structural survey of the standing shell is the £6k check that decides the whole deal before anything else.